A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
