Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
